Industry Insight shared by WaykiChain CEO, Gordon Gao
The opening of 2020 is very chaotic considering coronavirus broke out globally, all kinds of assets experienced significant shocks, oil price plummeted, gold prices suffered volatility, and US stocks experienced several trading curbs, etc and different kinds of epic Black swan event happened. What do you think about the influence of these unusual events towards DeFi?
I think it’s the best thing that can happen to DeFi. Because all these things help expose underlying problems, such as economic bubble, indiscriminate leverage, credit crisis, which can cause people to distrust the financial system. And DeFi is the revolution against the traditional financial system, it is a complete subversion. Paul Jones thinks that the government over issued currencies, so he needs to transit his assert to Bitcoin. Crisis means opportunity. The traditional financial system has long-existing problems. Most of the assets were made by capitalists, some in reasonable ways, while the others are simply robbery. But most of the people didn’t realize it. Henry Ford says, people don’t even know how our currencies and bank system works, which is good, since if they know, there will be a revolution before the next morning. Now all kinds of black swan events can make people aware of risks, and before the final risk comes, choose a more transparent and fair way to participate in finance.
Since this year, more and more public chains have begun to deploy the DeFi ecosystem. DeFi ecosystem has become an important direction for public chains to explore the landing of the blockchain this year. Can you analyze why the public chain has gathered to develop the DeFi ecosystem this year?
Most public chains have explored for a long time. Last year, many people said that the public chain industry was dead, but I feel that they just didn’t find the rigid demand for landing applications. Now everyone has begun to understand that DeFi is the best way out of the public chain. WaykiChain started to develop the first product of DeFi in March last year-The stablecoin and collateral loan agreement (WaykiCDP). However, it was not popularly called as DeFi at that time. Now, what we start with is to find a rigid-demanded scenario for the blockchain landing, and shorten the user’s path to enter into ecology. In this circle, most of the people are speculators and investors who hold two big needs of borrowing and making money, and DeFi is doing this business. From another perspective, the emergence of Bitcoin has created a new currency, and the role of public chains and smart contracts is to allow the currency to circulate under certain rules. Isn’t this just finance? In other words, if blockchain can’t even do finance, then it is just a scam.
can you explain to us the status and scale of the DeFi market nowadays?
The size of the DeFi industry can be roughly measured by the value of lock-up. Ethereum, as the largest DeFi platform at present, occupies most of the market share. Now the lock-up value on Ethereum is around USD 1 billion. Since last year, other public chains have started to have DeFi applications, including WaykiChain, cosmos, Polkadot, TRON, etc. The current DeFi scale on WaykiChain is not as good as Ethereum in terms of absolute volume, but in terms of the proportion of DeFi locks, WaykiChain definitely has the highest proportion so far, reaching the total of 17%. In terms of absolute volume, only niche players in the currency circle participate in DeFi, but DeFi has maintained market growth in the past two years, and the amount of lock-up positions has risen sharply, so the entire market still has a lot of room for each project party to explore.
compared to Bitcoin mining, DeFi is obviously more decentralized and suitable to the public. From a broad aspect, what advantage do you think DeFi has when compared to traditional finance, and what is the meaning of it towards the finance industry?
I like this question, so I will spend more time explaining it. I think the difference of DeFi can be shown in 3 points: DeFi can change the role people play in the financial system. In traditional finance, as an ordinary user, your role and participation process are very limited. However, this limitation is determined by all aspects, such as the credit problem, the threshold of the number of funds, as well as the license and the threshold of power, and so on. Such limitations often make ordinary users vulnerable groups in the financial system. And under the rules of the top class, wealth will always flow to the top. For example, global currencies have been issued continuously, have we participated in the decision? No. Has it been issued to individuals? No. We can only see that the world keeps issuing money, and the money in our hands is depreciating, while there is nothing we can do. But DeFi is different. Let me give an example. WaykiChain DeFi's governance coin WGRT, the holder has both the power of governance parameters and the benefits of the interest and penalty of the entire system. This is a role you cannot play in traditional finance. In DeFi system, it is full of fairness. DeFi can reduce financial costs. Since the beginning of the industrial era, the global financial structure has remained unchanged, relying heavily on various intermediate institutions. Central banks, investment banks, commercial banks, securities companies, etc. It can be said that any financial activity needs to have more than one intermediary profit from it. For example, in addition to the loss of the price difference of a transaction, a transaction also includes brokerage commissions, exchange transaction fees, stamp duties of regulatory authorities, etc. The price difference earned by these so-called "middlemen" makes them the richest class in the world. However, DeFi adopts an open protocol and provides low-cost financial services for everyone at low cost, which greatly reduces the cost of transactions. DeFi can improve the efficiency of finance. Blockchain enables financial transactions to achieve transaction settlement. It has gone beyond the traditional settlement system of financial institutions. When it comes to cross-border transactions. In terms of the transfer, a cross-border transfer can sometimes take several days, but in the blockchain system or DeFi system, the actual ownership of assets has changed when the transaction occurs. There’s one more point that I want to mention that is DeFi can derive something that traditional finance doesn’t have. For example, the constant product market maker is an innovative product in the field of DeFi. We believe that DeFi can not only improve and improve the original traditional finance but also have more innovations to be discovered. The CTO of our team wrote such a sentence in the introduction of WaykiChain code: “the only limitation of the blockchain is our imagination.”
At present, there is a strange situation in the industry. When asked DeFi, many people said they know it. But when it comes to the question of who invest it, everyone said they didn’t. What do you think is the reason for this situation? Where are the potential users of DeFi?
There should still be some people who have invested in the DeFi project. This year's link, knc, and mkr are all DeFi concepts, and they all have good market performance, including WaykiChain is also a DeFi concept, and our community is not small. It's just that few people are using DeFi products. In fact, not only a few people use DeFi products, but also fewer people who put coins in wallets to play any application in addition to the use of exchanges to speculate coins in the currency circle. For example, I got data before that showed only 14,000 people on Ethereum participate in DeFi. DeFi currently lacks a popular hit, like Dapp's ethernet cat, fomo3D, which can mobilize the market's passion at once. WaykiChain will release a DeFi product called Wayki-X in the second half of this year. Concerning synthetic asset transactions, we are confident that this product will become a hot issue. The first-level potential users of DeFi are users of public chain tokens, especially for collateral-type DeFi applications. For example, users who hold ETH are potential users of DeFi on Ethereum. Only if I look high on ETH, I will collateral ETH for various other financial activities. The same is true for WaykiChain. So if most of the non-DeFi public chains are removed, and most Bitcoin holders, this first-level potential user is still very limited. The second-level potential users are DeFi participants, such as participating in DEX transactions, or using other assets to purchase DeFi stable coins for investment and so on. The third-level potential users are some users outside the circle. They will take advantage of income opportunities, such as wealth management and other applications to come in contact with DeFi. This most extensive market has not been well developed. Ethereum already has an integrated DeFi ecosystem, and there are plenty of branches on it, plus a lot of public chains have poured into the DeFi track this year. However, the current scale of DeFi users is still small, and many people are worried that so many public chains are pouring into the DeFi track, but the market can’t digest so many DeFi products, thus they may finally be of varying quality. Are you worried about this problem? I am not worried. First of all, the advantage of Ethereum is not that great. The DeFi ecosystem on Ethereum can be said to be in full bloom, but it is not integrated. In addition, Ethereum now establishes DeFi in a savage way of development. I feel that it is just a child who plays on the beach and cannot build a skyscraper. The financial system needs to be framed, at least the asset standards should be unified, the pricing unit should be unified, and the liquidity measurement standards should be unified. DeFi on Ethereum does not have all these uniformities above, so many problems have arisen this year. Although the single-module product looks fine, once it comes to the “interoperability” that DeFi on Ethereum is proud of, three particularly serious security incidents occurred. Another thing is that if users want to use DeFi on Ethereum completely, they have to cross many products, and each time they exchange currency, they must bear the loss of the price difference, which will disperse the liquidity of DeFi. WaykiChain’s thinking is different from that of Ethereum. What WaykiChain wants to do is an integrated DeFi public chain, which means that we will unify the currency, unify the standard of asset release, unify the valuation unit, and unify the liquidity. Based on those preconditions, then smart contracts use imagination to build more products, and ultimately provide users with a one-stop DeFi experience. The market covered by DeFi is huge, so we don’t worry about competition. If you introduce 1% of Bitcoin’s market value to any public chain, it is enough to support a very large DeFi project, not to mention the introduction of traditional assets in the future.
How do you view DeFi’s development prospects and future market scale? Where do you think the ceiling for DeFi development is?
In the near term, although DeFi’s volume has developed rapidly, it is still very small. The current market value of the digital currency is about more than 270 billion US dollars, but the collateral in the DeFi agreement is only 1 billion US dollars. I think it will reach 20 billion US dollars in two years. It can be seen that the future market is still very broad. In addition to the need to compete for the Bitcoin market, mature public chains are also a development idea for DeFi empowerment of other public chains. For the ceiling of DeFi development, it is not yet seen now, but the first bottleneck that may be encountered is how to release off-chain assets to the blockchain to expand the overall DeFi market cap.
WGRT has set a strict risk control mechanism in terms of safety, convenience, and risk reserve. Such a professional and rigorous team believes that in the near future, it will present a different DeFi ecosystem to everyone. According to some latest data, there are more than 4,000 bitcoins locked in the DeFi ecosystem. What do you think is the reason that BTC has poured into the DeFi battlefield in large numbers? Will this set off a new round of DeFi boom?
The BTC market is the most attractive part of DeFi. Let me explain a few things. 1.For BTC currency holders, these people are optimistic about BTC for a long time, but when they lack liquidity at hand, they need a loan agreement to help them get some cash. However, the centralized financial platform has various security risks, such as asset theft, asset misappropriation, or platform running. Some money holders who pay special attention to security will choose the DeFi protocol.
In terms of DeFi projects, the market value and volume of BTC is the largest, so whoever can occupy the BTC market will become a giant.
For the DeFi market, BTC itself does not have programmability, so any other public chain needs to do a cross-chain protocol to introduce BTC, so the largest market provides the most fair competition environment. WaykiChain introduced a decentralized cross-chain mechanism in the upcoming public chain version 3.0. After going online, users can collateral BTC or ETH to generate stablecoin. At the same time, the interest paid by users, as well as the penalties that are cleared in the middle, are also to be repurchased for the destruction of WGRT.
WaykiChain's DeFi lockup volume actually reached 17% of the total, and it is expected to break new highs next. Gordon, what form and changes do you think the DeFi market will develop in the future? How should WaykiChain seize market opportunities?
First, the form of products will be more diversified, and many innovative products will appear. Second, the product will be more professional and have a better experience, while providing one-stop financial services. This is the direction that WaykiChain is currently doing. Third, the DeFi on the public chain will expand through cross-chain. For example, as mentioned earlier, the DeFi on the public chain will compete for the Bitcoin market. However, in addition to competing for the Bitcoin market, the market for more small currencies cannot be ignored. We will also try to use the WaykiChain DeFi system to empower other small currencies or public chains. So that their currency users can also enjoy the financial services brought by DeFi. This market has not yet been explored.
What plans does WGRT follow?
We want to build the world's first integrated DeFi public chain. The development of WGRT is inseparable from the promotion and use of stablecoin WUSD. Therefore, our follow-up plan is mainly to build more products around the stable currency system to empower WUSD. At the end of July this year and early August, we will launch a new product called WaykiX, which is a synthetic asset trading platform that can trade almost all types of assets in the world. After that, we will also launch WUSD financial management, so that the currency holders can enjoy a fixed income. At the same time, we will also develop asset securitization business, and publish some high-quality asset targets on WaykiChain, such as Vietnam real estate, European and American government bonds, etc., while expanding the volume of DeFi assets on WaykiChain, to the community more Investment opportunities.
Is there any plan after WGRT listed on OKEx?
Yes, I will answer in terms of two levels, the first level is the ecological level, and the second level is the level of the entire coin itself. From an ecological perspective, the quality of WGRT depends on the entire stablecoin system, and whether more people can use it. The stablecoin WUSD develops well, so the whole WGRT becomes the biggest beneficiary. In fact, the series of DeFi products we created later are all based on the stablecoin WUSD, such as the Wayki-X synthetic asset trading platform. After the Wayki-X synthetic asset trading platform is launched at the end of July and early August, the market will have a lot of demand for WICC. We will also use this platform as a fist product of this year to promote, so as to ensure the benefit of the entire WGRT. In addition, the real estate in Vietnam and the national debt in Europe are based on financial products issued by WUSD, and they will also promote the development of WGRT. The WGRT coin will be launched on OKEx, and then some high-quality second-tier exchanges will be listed to enhance its liquidity. When the liquidity is sufficient, we will also impact other first-tier exchanges, including domestic first-tier and international first-tier exchanges.
WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB
The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES. If you can’t read, GFY now. Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all. This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated. First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about. This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY. I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well. To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101 -Basics (Equities/Stocks) ; -ETF's ; -Options ; -Futures Trading ; -SubCulture ; BASICS/EQUTIES Skip if you understand basic stock stuff Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms. Volume: The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume. Spread: The difference between the bid and the ask price Bid Price: The current price in which someone wants to buy at Ask Price:The current price in which someone wants to sell at Volatility: The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges. Margin: A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction. Dividend: This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this. PPS: Acronym for “Price per Share” Moving Average: A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time. Bullish: Expecting the stock to go up Bearish: Expecting the stock to go down Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186 Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible. WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES: Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy. AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB. FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/ ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit. TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself. TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options. GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since. ETF'S Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors. ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much.. WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S: JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand. NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions. DUST - Jdst with a different price tag. UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions. DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts. DWT - Inverse of UWT FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc. FAZ - Inverse of FAS UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x. BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index. LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump. LABD - Inverse of LABU RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index. RUSS - Inverse of RUSL SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x. OPTIONS: Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward. An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves. KEY TERMS: A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form. A PUT - is the right to sell. The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised. ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising. OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset. ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves. For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me. That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it? Now what determines the pricing of options? OPTION PRICING: Below is sourced from investopedia Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money. Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right? Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it. Volatility: In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used. Decaying Nature of Options: Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away. A great example of these factors in action is TSLA. TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why? An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value. -Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide (thanks to u/IncendiaryGames) Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading. Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies? YOLO Strategies Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading if you want to explore more! Boring safer strategies I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area. SUBCULTURE Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history. HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga) + my additions 2012: Jartek [+1] creates /wallstreetbets, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau [+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link 2017: u/fscomeau preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456 inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued. KEY FIGURES: Donald J Trump - He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market, which Trump happens to be. u/Jartek - Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive. u/Fscomeau - The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator. Martin Shkreli - An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly. u/theycallme1 - Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods. u/world_chaos - some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options. Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature: The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy and many in the past. Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here. The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader. Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder. Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist. Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol. I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community. You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks. Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots. Enjoy your time here at WSB. EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY etc
Taking a huge risk while young with no kids. If it fails, FIRE target through traditional work in 6-8 years. If it works, FIRE before 30. Anyone else with a similar story, like starting a business or something?
Hey ladies and gents, they say goals are best acomplished if you tell others, so here is my story, and my plan. This is going to be a wildly unpopular opinion, but rest assured I researched my decisions carefully, have the traditional FIRE plan in place should my gamble fail, and it will not impact any children. The FIRE plan is pretty general, so I'll spare you the details. Ill be saving my usual 60% of each paycheck, and I'll keep enjoying inexpensive hobbies, like mountain biking, hiking, and camping. The question is, how to invest the savings for the best return? The method I decided on will seem very controvertial, so let me be clear, I know it may not work. Actually, it likely will not work the way I plan out. But the possible benefits are an extra 10 years of life without waking up to an alarm clock. Background I am young, as in 25. I am a family medicine intern. My wife is 24, a resident optometrist. We both grew up almost poor. Like, "always had a roof, but in a cramped house; always got a few christmas presents, but had parents that could barely get to the next paycheck, and sometimes racked up credit card debt to do so" kind of poor. We also graduated from high school into the teeth of the Great Recession. Between that and our combined 15 years of college/professional school, we are experts at surviving off nothing and delaying purchases until we absolutely need them. We do not want kids, so we do not have to be as financially secure as a normal family. We are doing well now, with combined incomes of $5000 and $2000 per month for myself and my wife, respectively. This is more money flowing in than we have ever had. And we are so frugal, we usually only spend 30-40% of each paycheck. *Plus, I was a vandweller for a while, so I know have a Plan C as well* So, since we are so young, and yet toughened, we can take risks now and still have a decent length working life to make up for the likely failure of those risks. However, should the risk pay off, we could possibly FatFIRE within 1-2 years. I'd say the chance of that success is... maybe 1 in 3. It was good enough for Sean Connery and the Red October. And to have some time in our 20s back from the hellhole that is professional education... oh my god so worth the risk. So, in the hopes that people will recognize we did not make this decision lightly, and we are simply trying to go out of the box, even the normal FIRE box, to attain freedom. Here is our story, and here is our plan. Learning how to invest Back in 2016, I had read some of the MMM blogs, and a few thousand dollars saved up. I was looking for anything that had decent returns, and a friend showed me how the Dow had tanked on news about China, and how he wished he had cash when the price was lower. At the time, I questioned the wisdom of buying when the market was going down. He looked at me, smiled, and told me it was just on sale. So I got a Wealthfront account and put a few hundred in at 90% stocks. The market recovered within months and I had a pretty good return. I then took some funds out. I tried timing things using the "FeaGreed Index" and Warren Buffets "be greedy when others are fearful" advice. I wasn't a day trader, more of a week trader. Then the stock market went down a little, and I bought more. I was just super lucky, but I thought I had a good stomach for risk at that point. Finding... (Dare I say it...) cryptocurrencies Here I may lose some of you, if you hate the idea of cryptocurrencys, and I respect your opinion. They are almost all speculation at this point, so I don't blame you. Anyway, I went looking for other, more volatile markets to apply Buffets advice after stocks flattened out in 2016. My sister's boyfriend told me he played with cryptocurrencies. So, I took some money off Wealthfront and I dabbled a bit on Gemini with Bitcoin ($600 at the time) and Ethereum ($12 at the time). I did my best to sell high, and buy in when FUD went around. I had put in maybe 1/2 of all my savings at that point. In total, my savings was only $15k then, but that was literally my life savings. Most was in Ethereum since it was cheaper. I started researching Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I liked Eth better. Naturally, Ethereum took a 30% dump to $9, and I realized that "volatile" meant down as well as up. Feeling a little stung, I pulled most of my remaining funds from Ethereum to even out my stock gains to avoid capital gains tax headaches (since I had no idea how any of that worked back then either.) Equally naturally, Ethereum then went off the rails to $40 before I could get my cash back in. The FOMO was strong, and I'm still kicking myself for missing that huge first leap. Luckily, it went from $40 to $400 in the span of a year. I had gone from $15k to $150k. I was in vapor lock for most of 2017 over this. I had never built up so much, so fast, and especially as it went higher in Autumn. At that point, I decided to pull from Ethereum and diversify in the cryptos, thinking the other shoe must be about to drop. XRP and the New Years 2018 Ripple Pump My sister's boyfriend again gave me some advice. He casually mentioned Ripple might be picked up by some big companies. My first thought was, "What the heck is a Ripple?" So I did some digging, and managed to get on the Kraken exchange, and glitched my way to a few hundred thousand XRP, while saving some of my precious Ethereum. Then XRP had that massive speculative pump, and I suddenly had over a 7-figure net worth within weeks. I was giddy. Then the market slumped. No big deal, I told myself. Then XRP took an 80% dump. *80. FREAKING. PERCENT.* I lost over $800,000 on paper from the high. I consoled myself on still having a mid 6-figure net worth, even to this day, but that didn't help much. As to why I did not withdraw at the peak, it was because I was simply astonished, a bit greedy, and I had no idea how such massive capital gains would impact my taxes, since they would be short term gains. At the time, I remember deciding not to decide and just roll with it. I knew I was young enough to deal with the volatility. So Im still holding on, even as the cryptocurrency market stumbles along. The Gamble Thank you for reading along this far. Before going any further, allow me to clarify that I don't want to sound like a gambler who can make his losses back with "just one more good hand..." which this will certainly sound like. My calculated risk is this: We will pour every extra cent that we can into XRP until we are 30 or have $6-8 million, whichever comes first. We would never do any leverage trades, as buying on margin is as stupid as essentially burning money in such volatile markets. If XRP has not taken off by the time we are 30, we will re-evaluate it against other cryptos with use-cases or stocks. Meanwhile, we will remain as frugal as we have always been, and continue to save at least 60% of each paycheck. The idea is this: plenty of people discover the FIRE movement in their 30s, after having terrible financial habits and no savings. If those people can FIRE in a few years, we would be able to do so as well if the Crypto market collapses. Its been around since 2009, so I bet it will be around at least another decade. The reasoning There is a finance quote that goes something like, "diversification protects, concentration grows," and right now we need our funds to grow, quickly, to reach FIRE. I have researched Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and XRP. I chose XRP because it serves a very useful purpose already. Ethereum does as well, but currently mostly in theory. I agree with MMM on Bitcoin, in that it is a "greater fool" game. Bitcoin is also the first. So was MySpace. Anyway, XRP could easily become highly prized by banks for global money transfers, and in providing an actual service, behaves more as a "natural resource" than a security. And it is wise to buy natural resources before the demand grows for it. Imagine buying land in West Texas before the automobile was invented. Also, while I hate to depend on speculation, rampant speculation made me a momentary-millionaire on paper over the course of weeks earlier this year. Even if having a good use-case isn't enough, I bet the speculators will return to the cryptosphere within the next year because it could be very useful. Call that my "Hail-Mary." Discussion on Ripple and XRP, and why most people hate it. Skip if you don't want the technical talk So there are currently a lot of risks. XRP could be ruled a security of the Ripple Company, and it would not be listed on certain exchanges. XRP could be abandoned by Ripple. XRP could grow more slowly than Ethereum, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, or the myriad of other cryptocurrencies like EOS, Litecoin, or Cardano. Additionally, XRP uses a Ledger protocol, which is different from the Proof of Work "mining" required for Bitcoin or Ethereum. So it may technically not actually be a real cryptocurrency in the traditional sense. This makes it understandable why so many people do not like it, since they don't understand it compared to what they're used to. That doesn't mean it can't have value. I have an answer to those concerns listed above. Ripple is doing its best to conform to SEC rules, and wants to be regulated as a currency. XRP likely won't be ruled a security, even though Ripple is selling the technology to utilize them. Currently XRP and its ledger system operate independently from Ripple, and can scale to demand, using tiny fees taken from each transaction. As far as growth, XRP does tend to lag, however, last time Bitcoin was $6k, XRP was $0.20. Now Bitcoin is $6k, and XRP is $0.45. I'll take 100% growth any day. And with some nudging from the Ripple Company, I think XRP is most likely to increase in value, and stay increased, where something else more popular may get pumped faster, then quickly dumped. That happened to XRP already, so I like to think it "got it out of it's system." To digress a moment on the security/currency/natural resource thing, imagine XRP as a lump of iron. Now imagine you're in the bronze age. Ripple found and mined the iron, and had a lot of it. It was found to be valuable, so Ripple had to carefully manage how it interacts with the Iron supply. Now the lumps are being released by an escrow, so Ripple doesn't control such a large suppy any more. (Ripple is also decentralizing their control of the XRP ledger, with more 3rd party nodes coming online.) So, these lumps of iron are sitting there, and Ripple had an idea. Rather than use horses to carry sacks of gold, they could build a rail system out of the iron. Ripple would control the rail system. The iron could be made into mine carts. So, Ripple doesn't control the carts, just the rails, and so doesn't have to have the carts regulated as portions of the company. Kingdoms can easily transfer their gold to other kingdoms on the rails in the carts that they own. Buy the iron, and you can move value with it. That inherently gives value to the iron, since there is a finite supply. The cool thing is though, what else can iron be used for besides carts? I don't know, but someone like Jeff Bezos might. Historical Comparison Jeff Bezos came up with a book sales program. He focused it, got really good at it, and customers loved it. It became super popular, then it branched out and is involved in nearly everything. Anyone who invested in early Amazon is extremely wealthy. Ripple the Company is getting really good at one thing, global payments. And they may be decentralizing, but Ripple can still nudge XRPs future. In the future, Ripple will certainly find other uses for their programs and for the global XRP supply. For example, imagine if it became the standard Xbox Live or PS4 Online token. Good golly miss molly, everyone and their grandmother would be trying to buy them. So, with so many unknowns, XRP is unpopular now, and thus cheap. But IF it is ruled not a security, and IF it is used in global remittance markets, and IF the Ripple developers don't get stolen away by other blockchain teams, and IF another coin doesn't come out and do XRPs job better... then this might be a very dirty, balled up, golden ticket. We shall see. If you have questions, please comment, and I will try to better explain what I have found in my research. Recap So, being young and able to stomach some epic risks, (really, does the stock market count as risky if everyone intends to be able to have a 4% SWR after inflation?) I am going to put all my eggs in one basket. My life savings in XRP. At least til Im 30. If the gamble fails, I work 8 years as a frugal physician and FIRE before Im 40. If XRP (and a few Eth for good luck) go crazy, I may FIRE before 30. That extra 10 years is, like Tom Hanks says in Joe vs The Volcano, "gold in my hand." Since there are a lot of ways to get to FIRE, please let me know if anyone else is trying the "eggs in one basket, concentrate wealth to grow" strategy. Or if you took a similarly huge risk that worked out, what is your story? ***I would love to answer any questions, but please also do your own research, and only invest what you can afford to lose. We have income, so we can afford to lose a good chunk of our life savings. We watched our parents survive that in 2009.
The owners of Blockstream are spending $75 million to do a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin by manipulating the Core devs & the Chinese miners. This is cheap compared to the $ trillions spent on the wars on Iraq & Libya - who also defied the Fed / PetroDollar / BIS private central banking cartel.
At this point, that's really the simplest "Occam's razor" explanation for Blockstream's "irrational" behavior. Once you let go of your irrational belief that Blockstream's owners actually want to get a "return" on their $75 million investment, from "innovations" such as sidechains technology (Lightning Network - LN) - only then will you be able to see that Blockstream's apparently "irrational" behavior is actually perfectly rational. They say their goal is to "get rich" from LN. And if you believe that, I have a Dogecoin I'd like to sell you. What are the real goals of Blockstream's owners? Blockstream's owners don't give a fuck about the Rube Goldberg vaporware which some focus group christened "the Lightning Network". That name is just there to placate the masses of noobs who congregate on /bitcoin. The owners of Blockstream are laughing at Adam Back as he continues to labor in isolation, the stereotypical math PhD who is clueless about economics, toiling away creating a slow, overpriced, centralized "level 2" payment layer on top of Bitcoin - a complicated contraption which may never work. They have neutralized him - but meanwhile, he thinks he's a rock star now, as "CEO of Blockstream". Little does he know he is the worst "collaborator" of all. Investors are risk-averse If Blockstream's owners really wanted to get rich from LN, do you really think they would freeze the "max blocksize" at 1 MB for the next year, when this 1-year freeze obviously risks destroying Bitcoin itself (along with their investment)? Investors are not stupid - and they are risk-averse. They know that if there's no Bitcoin, then there's no Lightning - so their $75 million investment would go out the window. And all the "Core" devs have actually gone on the record stating (in their less-guarded moments, or before they signed their employment contracts with Blockstream) that 2 MB blocks would work fine - even 3-4 MB blocks. Empirical research by miners has shown that 3-4 MB blocks - or even bigger - would work fine right now. So why aren't the Blockstream investors pressuring the Core devs to go to 2 MB now, to remove the risk of Bitcoin failing? If Blockstream did the "rational" thing and agreed to 2 MB now, the price would shoot up, the community would heal, innovation would start happening again. Bitcoin would proper, and Blockstream's investors would have a good chance at making a "return" on their investment. For some reason, Blockstream's investors are trying to stop all this from happening. So we have to look for a different explanation. If the owners of Blockstream don't want to get rich from the Lightning Network, then what do they really want? The simplest explanation is that the real risk which Blockstream's investors are "averse" to is the possibility of trillions of dollars in legacy fiat suddenly plunging in relative value, if Bitcoin were to shoot to the moon. They're afraid they'll lose power if Bitcoin succeeds. In order to provide some support for this radical but simple hypothesis, we have to dive into some pretty nasty and shadowy geopolitics. What do the wars on Iraq and Syria, JPMorgan's naked short selling of silver, and the book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" all have in common? Whenever a currency tries to compete with the Fed / Petrollar / BIS  private central banking cartel, the legacy fiat power élite destroys that currency (if the currency has a central point of control - which Bitcoin does have: the Core devs, the Chinese miners, and Theymos).  BIS = the Bank for International Settlements, often referred to as "the central bank of central banks" Trillions of dollars were spent to take down the central banks of Iraq and Libya, because they defied the hegemony of the Fed / Petrodollar / BIS private central banking cartel. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ellen+brown+iraq+libya+bis And while you're googling, you might want to look up whistleblower Andrew Maguire (who exposed how JPMorgan uses naked short selling to "dump" nonexistent silver in order to prevent the USDollar from collapsing). https://duckduckgo.com/?q=andrew+maguire+jpmorgan And you might also want to look up John Perkins, whose book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" is another major eye-opener about how "the Washington consensus" manages to rule the world by printing fiat backed by violence and justified by "experts" and propaganda. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=john+perkins+confessions+economic+hit+man That's just how the world works - although you have to do a bit of research to discover those unpleasant facts. So for the legacy fiat power élite, $75 million to take down Bitcoin (and maintain their power) is chump change in comparison. You all knew that "they" were going to try to destroy Bitcoin, didn't you? Even Jamie Dimon practically admitted as much. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jamie+dimon+bitcoin Did you really think they would be clumsy enough to try to ban it outright? Private central bankers run this planet, and they have never hesitated to use their lethal combination of guns, debt and psyops to maintain their power. They pay for the wars, they keep people enslaved to debt, and they dumb down the population so nobody knows what's really going on. Print up a trillion dollars here, kill a million people there, brainwash everyone with censorship and propaganda. That's their modus operandi. So we shouldn't be surprised if they they ruthlessly and covertly try to take down Bitcoin. They have the means and the motivation. It was only a matter of time before they identified the three weakest centralized points in the Bitcoin system:
the Core devs
the Chinese miners
And so that's where they applied the pressure. I'm sorry to be rude, but all three of those players listed above are idiot savants / sitting ducks up against the full-spectrum of covert dirty tricks deployed by the legacy fiat power élite - whether it's money, ego-stroking, or pretending to go along with their crazy cypherpunk beliefs that Bitcoin will only prosper as long as it remains small enough to run a node on a dial-up internet on a Raspberri Pi in Luke-Jr's basement. So the simplest explanation is this: Blockstream is a "front company" which has been established for the purpose of performing a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin. So Satoshi messed up. He messed up by baking in a 1 MB constant into the code at the last minute as a clumsy anti-spam kludge - which could unfortunately only be removed via a hard fork - and which the global legacy power élite have figured how to retain via social engineering directed at clueless Core devs and clueless Chinese miners (and clueless forum moderators). So why is the price is still fairly stable? Heck, I'm so paranoid, I wouldn't even put it past them to try to interfere with investors who might otherwise be trying to send a signal by "voting with their feet". In other words, several observers have commented that the only way to liberate Bitcoin from the cartel of Chinese miners and Core/Blockstream devs is to crash the price. And many other observers are puzzled that the price isn't crashing now that Bitcoin is being strangled in its cradle by Blockstream. Well, this wouldn't be the first time that the Fed / PetroDollar / BIS private central banking cartel sent in the "plunge protection" team to artificially prop up their fragile, centralized, permissioned currency. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=plunge+protection+team Who knows, they could easily have printed up a few million dollars in phoney fiat and given it to players like Jamie Dimon or Blythe Masters who probably have access to the HFT (high frequency trading) tools to keep the price exactly where they want it, for as long as they want it. Manipulating an unregulated $6 billion market would be child's play for them. The point is, we have no idea who is buying bitcoins at this price right now. Or what their motives are. I know that if I were part of the legacy fiat power élite, this is exactly what I'd be doing now: buy off the devs, pressure the miners, encourage the censors, and play with the price - so nobody knows what the hell is going on. Prevent the price from crashing for the next year (so the community won't have a "smoking gun" to reject the Core devs and the Chinese miners)... and prevent it from going to the moon also (so the dollar won't look like it's crashing). Not too hard to do, especially if you have unlimited fiat at your disposal. 2016 is the perfect time to perform a "controlled demolition" on Bitcoin. All the forces in the global economy are now aligned for a massive economic storm of epic proportions. Without Blockstream's interference, Bitcoin's price would be shooting to the moon right now, because it's the only digital asset class free of counterparty risk, compared to all the other garbage floating around in the system:
Deutsche Bank is teetering on the edge of collapse: that alone would be 5x the size of the Lehman collapse. (Deutsche has about $75 trillion in nominal derivatives exposure - 1000x as big as its mere $58 billion in assets. It's probably already bankrupt, and is merely being held together with chewing gum and paper clips accounting tricks.)
After multiple rounds of QE (quantitative easing), the central bankers have shot their wad, and have no tools left to stimulate the economy.
The 8-year US president reign will end this fall - which is when all the financial dirt that was swept under the rug always comes out. (Recall that Timothy Geithner went to Congress begging for the first $1 trillion of the bailouts after the 2008 election, in early November.)
And the Bitcoin halvening is coming up.
Bitcoin is one of the only safe harbors in this oncoming economic storm. So it should be skyrocketing right now - if there were no artificial constraints on its growth. So if Blockstream were not doing a controlled demolition of Bitcoin right now by freezing the blocksize to 1 MB for the next year, then the Bitcoin price could easily go to 4,000 USD - instead languishing around 400 USD. In other words: the USDollar would be crashing 10-fold versus Bitcoin. The only bulwark against Bitcoin rising 10x versus the USDollar is Blockstream's stranglehold on the Core devs and the Chinese miners. Just like the only bulwark against precious metals rising 10x versus the USDollar right now is JPMorgan's naked short selling of phoney (paper) precious metals, mainly via the SLV ETF (exchange traded fund). https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jpmorgan+naked+short+selling+slv (Most informed estimates say that there is 100x more "fake" or "paper" gold and silver in existence, versus "physical" gold and silver. So it's easy for JPMorgan to suppress the silver price: just naked-short-sell "paper" silver. They do this as a service to the Fed, to prop up the dollar. And your tax dollars pay for this fraud.) The silence of the devs Isn't it strange how not a single Blockstream dev dares to "break ranks" on the 2 MB taboo? This unanimous code of silence among Blockstream devs speaks volumes. Devs on open-source projects like this (particularly ones which were founded on principles of "permissionless" "decentralization") would never maintain this kind of uniform code of developer silence - especially when their precious open-source project is on the verge of failing. Most devs are rebels - especially Bitcoin devs - ready to break ranks at the drop of a hat, and propose their brilliant ideas to save the day. But right now - utter silence. This bizarre code of silence which we are now seeing from the "Core" devs must be the result of some major behind-the-scenes arm-twisting by the owners of Blocsktream, who must have made it abundantly clear that any dev who attempts to provide a simple on-chain scaling solution will be severely punished - financially, legally and/or socially. Blockstream has deliberately set Bitcoin on a suicide course right now - and all the devs there are silently complicit - and so are the Chinese miners who submissively bowed down to Blockstream's stalling "scaling" roadmap. But I don't really blame the devs and the miners. I feel bad for them. I'm not really "blaming" any Chinese miners for being used like this - nor am I really "blaming" devs such as Adam Back, Greg Maxwell, etc. Nor do I really "blame" guys like Austin Hill. And I even think guys like Theymos and Luke-Jr "mean well". They're all just being played. They think they're doing the right thing. Their arguments are genuine and heart-felt. Wrong, but heart-felt. This is what makes them so dangerous - because they really sound sincere and convincing. This is why they are the perfect pawns for the owners of Blockstream to play like this. Subtle coercion We recently found out that they locked the Chinese miners in a room for 13 hours until 3 AM to force them to sign an "agreement" to never use any code from a competing Bitcoin implementation that would increase the blocksize. https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/46tv22/only_emperors_kings_and_dictators_demand_fealty/ Have you ever seen this kind of coercion in an open-source project - an open-source project founded on the principles of "permissionless" "decentralization" - where many of the founders were "cypherpunks"?? The miners and the devs - and Theymos - and guys like Austin Hill - all are passionate about Bitcoin, and they all believe they are doing "the right thing". But they are being manipulated, without their knowledge, by the real power behind Blockstream. Prisoners in a golden cage Strange how we never get to hear what really goes on behind closed doors at Blockstream. We never get to see the PowerPoint decks, we never get to find out who said what. Blockstream's public messaging is tightly controlled. If Bitcoin were to have a "core" dev team, it should have had something like the Mozilla Group, or the Tor Project - non-profits, who answer to the public, not to private investors. Instead we got Blockstream - a private company funded by some of the biggest players of the legacy fiat power élite. WTF?!? If they wanted to develop sidechains and LN, then fine, they should be able to. But what they're really doing is radically changing Bitcoin itself - mainly by freezing growth at 1 MB blocks now, which is choking the system. Depite all this, I still would not go so far as to say that the Core devs and the Chinese miners are really "traitors". At most, they are actually prisoners in a golden cage, who are not even really conscious of their own imprisonment. They're smart people - and in some ways, smart people are actually easier to fool, once you figure out what they believe in. So this is what I really think the owners of Blockstream have done. They've figured out how to manipulate the Core devs and the Chinese miners - and they're happy that Theymos is playing along, censoring the main online forums - so they're able to move ahead with their plan to do a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin, and it only cost them $75 million dollars. Centralization got us into this mess. The only reason Bitcoin is vulnerable to this kind of "controlled demolition" being performed by the owners of Blockstream is because mining operations and dev teams are centralized - thus providing a single, vulnerable point where the legacy fiat power élite could easily deploy their full-spectrum attack. We finally have a digital asset with no counterparty risk - and they want to take it away from us, so that we continue to depend on their debt-backed, violence-backed legacy fiat. And they're able to do this because the Core devs and the Chinese miners and Theymos were such easy gullible centralized targets. Decentralization will get us out. If you are a miner or a dev, and if you want Bitcoin to survive, then you must go back to the principles of permissionless decentralization. Go dark, release some code anonymously. Release an internal Blockstream PowerPoint deck or some internal Blockstream emails to Wikileaks, exposing what the Blockstream investors are really up to. Otherwise, Bitcoin is probably going to fail to realize its potential - and we'll have to wait a while for truly decentralized development (and mining, and forums) to possibly create a successor someday. If you're a hodler, it would be great if such a phoenix rising from Bitcoin would be a "spinoff" - ie, a coin bootstrapped off of the existing ledger (to preserve existing wealth, while upgrading to a new protocol for appending new blocks). https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0 But who knows.
Cryptokidnapping, or how to lose $3 billion of bitcoin in India
Investigators across Gujarat and in the Indian capital of New Delhi say complaints about crypto frauds began pouring in after the U.S. cease-and-desist letters. Accusations of tax evasion and police corruption, a kidnapper who was kidnapped, a fugitive politician, and billions in bitcoin lost. This is crypto-trading Gujarat-style. The ingredients are part of an investigation in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state into allegations that investors poured cash into a bitcoin-based Ponzi scheme that could exceed the country’s largest banking scandal. The fallout extends as far as Texas and has embroiled a former lawmaker, tarnishing Modi’s ruling party months before an election. It began in February, when property developer Shailesh Bhatt charged into the Home Minister’s office in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, claiming he had been kidnapped by a group of policemen and told to pay 200 bitcoin, worth some $1.8 million at the time, for his release. He said he had nowhere else to go. The state’s elite Criminal Investigation Department was called in and the evidence it has uncovered points to a potential fraud on an epic scale. Eight policemen have been indicted and suspended pending trial. The abduction was allegedly spearheaded by Bhatt’s associate, Kirit Paladiya, and masterminded by Paladiya’s uncle Nalin Kotadiya, a former lawmaker in Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, according to Ashish Bhatia, the lead CID investigator. Bhatt has been charged too, as the allegations of kidnapping widened. Paladiya is now in jail, facing charges of abduction and extortion, and Bhatt and Kotadiya are both absconding, according to police. Kotadiya posted a video via Whatsapp in April denying wrongdoing and saying he’d informed authorities about the crypto scam, said Prashant Dayal, a senior Gujarati journalist who broke the story. In the video, reposted on Youtube, Kotadiya says Bhatt is responsible for the scam and threatens to release evidence that could implicate other politicians. Both Bhatt and Paladiya have denied wrongdoing, according to their lawyers. Between late 2016 and early 2017, Bhatt invested in BitConnect, a cryptocurrency firm that was being promoted in Gujarat by a man called Satish Kumbhani, according to Bhatia, the CID investigator, in an interview at his office late June. Kumbhani is one of the founders of BitConnect, which has allegedly scammed individuals across the globe, according to Crypto Watchdogs, a group of six investors who’ve filed a U.S. federal lawsuit against the company. The firm recruited clients worldwide to deposit bitcoin and receive BitConnect coins they could lend at interest rates of more than 40 percent a month. The interest they earned was higher if they recruited others to invest. Attempts to contact the company and Kumbhani for comment were unsuccessful. As the price of bitcoin soared last year from less than $1,000 to more than $19,700, so did BitConnect’s value. Bhatt and other investors in Gujarat poured bitcoin worth $3.2 billion into Bitconnect, according to Bhatia. The vast inflows from Indian investors were partly the result of Modi’s shock move in November 2016 to invalidate banknotes worth 15 trillion rupees in an effort to curb tax evasion, according to a chartered accountant in Gujarat. Modi, who faces federal elections in early 2019, ruled the state as chief minister for more than a decade before becoming prime minister in 2014 with the promise of stamping out corruption. As a result of Modi’s 2016 demonetization, about 45 billion rupees ($650 million) flowed to Gujarat’s port city of Surat, to be hidden away in assets including cryptocurrencies, said the accountant, who asked not to be identified because his clients include some of the city’s biggest diamond and textile traders. Surat, the heart of the scandal, is famed for its entrepreneurial merchants who travel the world to set up a “dhandha,” or family business. Their tight-knit communities dominate Antwerp’s diamond trade and own a quarter of U.S. motels. In the days following Modi’s demonetization -- when Indians were given about 60 days to bank their higher-value banknotes or lose them -- Google marked a surge in queries from the country on how to launder untaxed cash, or black money. Most of the searches came from Gujarat, Google Trends show. One answer was to switch to cryptocurrencies. Crypto chatrooms around the world soon were abuzz about a surge in demand from Indians who were paying a 25 percent premium for bitcoin. “After demonetization, we were watching India,” said Kiran Vaidya, a product manager at Toronto-based U.Cash and a blockchain adviser to Canadian banks. “We’d seen how bitcoin rose after the Greece economic crisis and similarly after things went south in Venezuela. The volumes were so high that it was obviously people who had the capacity to move markets." While the initial rush may have been black money, there were cases of people selling houses and cars in hopes of doubling their investment, said the CID’s Bhatia. Then, on Jan. 4, 2018, the state of Texas filed a cease-and-desist order against BitConnect. North Carolina followed five days later. The news came as the price of bitcoin crashed. Amid the ensuing market turmoil, the Reserve Bank of India announced measures that virtually banned crypto transactions. Cryptocurrency exchanges responded with a lawsuit that is due to resume hearings in the Supreme Court in September. Investigators across Gujarat and in the Indian capital of New Delhi say complaints about crypto frauds began pouring in after the U.S. cease-and-desist letters. Still, those who had been trying to hide untaxed cash were in a quandary. If they went to the authorities, they would have to declare their investments. So Bhatt and nine accomplices -- including Paladiya -- kidnapped two BitConnect representatives in Surat and demanded 2,256 bitcoin as ransom, CID investigators alleged. Paladiya, however, wanted more. He contacted his influential uncle, Kotadiya, and tapped the latter’s network in the local police to double-cross Bhatt and allegedly extort his bitcoin, according to allegations in police documents and interviews with investigators. They were confident of success, gambling that Bhatt wouldn’t go to the authorities and certain that the anonymity of bitcoin would make the heist untraceable, according to the investigators. They were wrong. Bhatt pressed charges. Bhatt himself has gone “underground” -- Indian parlance for hiding to avoid arrest -- because his appeal for bail was rejected, said his lawyer Rupesh Rupareliya. In a July 26 telephone interview, Rupareliya said Bhatt denies any wrongdoing and says that Paladiya handled all the bitcoin transfers as Bhatt wasn’t tech savvy. Paladiya’s lawyer Yogesh Ravani denied any wrongdoing by his client and said Paladiya was a victim of the kidnappers. On July 5, the opposition Congress Party held a press conference demanding the ruling BJPinvestigate the matter in Gujarat. Kotadiya is no longer with the BJP and since the Gujarat government initiated the investigation, it shows the government is dealing with the matter, said GVL Narasimha Rao, a New Delhi-based BJP spokesman. He asked Bloomberg News to speak to the state administration about Kotadiya’s threat to reveal more political involvement. Jitendrabhai Vaghani, BJP president for Gujarat, answered a call but disconnected when told the question was about the cryptocurrency fraud. He didn’t answer subsequent calls. The BJP had its worst showing in more than two decades when state elections were held in Gujarat last December. Shailesh Kumar, Asia director with political risk advisory Eurasia Group, said the alleged scam follows a string of high-profile frauds. “If more names of politicians do come out, there could be a price to pay,” he said. “The government will have to find the absconders and bring them back.” Source: https://www.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/cryptokidnapping-or-how-to-lose-3-billion-of-bitcoin-in-india/articleshow/65347828.cms
Hehe, nah I don't draw any of it. Some company in Melbourne is managing it. I don't know... But I will say, all artwork was done by the kids at St Dominic's school for hearing impaired kids... some cool art.
These birds attack a village of Cicadas (For no reason... just being the dicks that they are) and then, the Cicadas travel through a television screen somehow, and come out the other side falling from the sky and shit all over said birds... There's a bit of a struggle for territory scenario happening for while, indicative of what many cultures have experienced through history... Then there is peace... or is there?? read to find out :D
It is indeed. Was so much fun getting the kids involved. There are some scenes that I needed illustrated that had animals pooing on other animals... the kids really dug drawing those ones :) lesson: kids love poo in stories.
Yeh. I work in digital marketing... 9 to 5 type deal... ends up usually being 8 to 6 or 7 :/ How do you catch a rabbit? lay real low in the grass and make noises like a carrot... gets me everytime... even when I was just writing it right now :)
This is an easy one. THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION. Favourite scene probs when Andy Dufresne listens to the music with the doors locked, not giving ANY fucks... What about you man? Wait... your username... are we pals already???
I love this country because: Health care is pretty sweet, there are no major wars going on, the sports are great, you can go surfing in almost every town, and basically everyone is someone I'd like to have a beer with. You should come say gday :)
That's a tough one... mainly because I don't read that often... I really really really like The Dark Tower series... mainly because it just gets weird (weird is essential)... but there are some dull bits...
Guna be working mainly. But huge week this week. Huge week. First episode of the new season of Survivor is happening. I fucking love that shit. So, there's that... How about you canitouchyourtouchie?? where do you live and such? what do you do?
I try and steer clear of politics (unlike a vast majority of my Facebook friends). My feelings are, unless I actively support a cause or movement, I probs shouldn't talk as if I know the whole situation...
Thaaanks :) Shit! You paid money... THANK YOU. I... to answer your question... It helped to kind of set a release date and just work to that... letting go of it when it was done was just awesome... so many edits... Writing funny... I'm probably not the best person to comment on that one... people who think they are funny, usually are not funny... So, I don't think I'm funny... So that means I'm funny right? :/
Wow. You must be way more smarts than I am... I think anyone who tries to be weird influences me... authors, musicians, tv & film creators, teachers, people grinding out a 9 to 5... if you're putting your mark on what you do... I respect that...I don't feel any resentment to anyone... I am self-published... it wasn't hard... Answer your Q's friend? I hope your writing goes well. Message me when you are ready and I will check out your stuff...
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